A staggering one-third of the American population reports having no confidence in higher education. Once viewed as the gateway to opportunity and upward mobility, colleges and universities are now in a trust crisis—increasingly perceived as inaccessible, unaffordable, and disconnected from the realities of today’s learners. The consequence? The drop in public confidence exacerbates the effects of the demographic cliff, leading to even greater enrollment declines.
At the center of efforts to understand and respond to this shift is Lumina Foundation, a national private foundation dedicated to expanding access to postsecondary learning. With decades of research and policy leadership behind it, Lumina has taken the long view—and a bold one. Its newly announced national goal calls for 75 percent of the U.S. workforce to attain a college degree or a credential of economic value by 2040.
But achieving that target will require more than ambition. It will demand a full reckoning with the systemic barriers learners face and a coordinated effort by institutions, policymakers, and communities to make education more affordable, accessible, transparent, and aligned with workforce needs.
Higher Education Attainment Goals: Lumina’s Strategic Legacy
Lumina’s new 2040 goal builds on more than a decade of work to increase postsecondary attainment. In 2008, the foundation established a landmark national target: by 2025, 60 percent of working-age adults (ages 25-64) would hold a college degree or high-quality credential.
At the time, the U.S. attainment rate hovered around 38 percent. The goal was ambitious and galvanizing. In the following years, 49 states adopted their own attainment goals, and hundreds of institutions and nonprofit partners aligned their strategies accordingly. Importantly, Lumina focused on scalable, systems-level changes rather than one-time interventions, such as scholarships. The emphasis was on sustainable reform, equity, and data-driven policymaking.
As of the most recent reporting, national attainment has reached approximately 54.9 percent—a significant gain, even if it falls slightly short of the 6 percent target. These results speak to both the difficulty of structural change and Lumina’s effectiveness in helping mobilize an entire ecosystem of stakeholders toward a shared goal.
Collaborative Leadership: Building a National Higher Education Strategy
What makes Lumina’s approach especially effective—and different from many national initiatives—is its commitment to collaboration. The foundation doesn’t issue goals from an ivory tower. Instead, it engages a broad coalition of stakeholders across political lines, institutional types, and geographic regions before announcing a direction.
In developing the new 2040 goal, Lumina spent a considerable amount of time listening and learning. The foundation consulted extensively with higher education leaders, state higher education executive officers (SHEEOs), policymakers, institutional administrators, employers, students, and even skeptics. The question they posed was simple but profound: “What does the nation need from higher education in the next 15 years?”
From these conversations, a clear and consistent theme emerged—credentials of value. Leaders across red states, blue states, and everything in between voiced alignment around the need to emphasize not only access and attainment but the economic payoff of postsecondary education as well.
This deliberate consensus-building was essential. Before the new goal was even publicly announced, Lumina returned to the SHEEOs and other partners to share the data and the proposed framework. State leaders reviewed their state’s attainment data, considered the implications, and validated the importance of linking credentials to value and economic prosperity.
By taking the time to build buy-in—and by treating the goal as a national aspiration rather than a Lumina-branded initiative—the foundation significantly increased the likelihood that this target will gain traction across regions and political divides.
Economic Value in Higher Education: Why 2040 Credentials Matter
While Lumina’s earlier goal focused on attainment alone, the new target introduces an essential qualifier: economic value. By 2040, the goal is for 75 percent of working-age Americans to hold not just a postsecondary credential, but one that yields a meaningful earnings premium, defined as at least 15 percent higher income than a high school diploma alone.
This shift in emphasis reflects growing public skepticism. Americans no longer see postsecondary education as a guaranteed pathway to upward mobility. Instead, they are asking more challenging questions about cost, ROI, and whether degrees align with real job opportunities. Simply increasing credential attainment isn’t enough—those credentials must also lead to real economic opportunities.
From a feasibility standpoint, the new goal presents a higher bar, but it also comes with a more refined strategy. Unlike in 2008, today’s policy and institutional landscapes are better prepared. States have existing attainment infrastructures in place. Colleges are more attuned to workforce alignment and student success metrics. A vast ecosystem of data now allows for sharper, real-time analysis of educational return on investment.
Still, there are challenges. Reaching 75 percent by 2040 will require accelerating the pace of attainment gains while simultaneously ensuring that new credentials meet value thresholds. It will require reaching adult learners, particularly those who have some college experience but no formal credentials. It will require making good on long-standing equity promises, ensuring that Black, Latino, Indigenous, and rural learners are not left behind.
If the 2025 goal was a moonshot, the 2040 goal is a Mars landing—with more obstacles, but also better tools and a more straightforward path forward.
Public Trust in College Education: Understanding the Confidence Crisis
The importance of this goal is underscored by the sharp decline in public confidence in higher education. Gallup polling shows that in 2015, more than 60 percent of Americans had a great deal of confidence in the sector. By 2023, that figure had dropped to roughly one-third. Even more concerning: the share of Americans with “no confidence” in higher ed has tripled from 10 percent to 33 percent.
Research conducted by Gallup and Lumina reveals why. Three key themes emerge:
- Perception of Over-Politicization: Campuses are increasingly viewed as battlegrounds for political ideology, leading to concerns that free speech and open discourse are under threat.
- Weak Alignment with Workforce: Many Americans question whether a college degree still leads to a viable career path. Without clear connections to job opportunities, the value of a credential diminishes.
- Affordability: The rising sticker price of tuition, coupled with widespread debt anxiety, has made higher education seem out of reach, especially for first-generation and low-income students.
These findings are detailed in Lumina’s State of Higher Education 2024 report, developed in partnership with Gallup. We also cover this in a recent post, Why Public Trust in Higher Ed is Declining — And What Leaders Can Do About It. and a recent Changing Higher Ed® podcast with Dr. Courtney Brown, the Vice President of Strategic Impact and Planning at Lumina Foundation.
College Degree ROI: Evidence Supporting Higher Education’s Value
Despite declining confidence, the data continue to affirm the value of higher education. Over a lifetime, individuals with a college degree earn significantly more, are less likely to be unemployed, and are more likely to report job satisfaction and civic engagement. Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce has repeatedly documented this return on investment.
Surveys show that 90 percent of current bachelor’s students believe their investment in education is worth it, and nearly 60 percent expect a full return on their investment within five years. Among adults without a credential, 70 percent say a bachelor’s degree is valuable, and more than half view an associate degree positively.
University Leadership Strategy: Institutional Actions to Rebuild Trust
To meet the 2040 goal and begin restoring public trust, higher education must evolve to better serve the modern learner. That means addressing not just access and attainment, but relevance, value, and student experience.
Key institutional imperatives include:
- Redesign for Affordability: Review pricing models, reduce administrative bloat, and reinvest in need-based aid. Leverage new funding mechanisms like income-share agreements or completion-based aid to reduce risk for students.
- Clarify the Value Proposition: Offer greater transparency around program costs, graduation rates, job placement, and potential earnings. Treat students like informed consumers.
- Align Curriculum with Workforce Demands: Build programs around projected labor market needs, not historical precedent. Embed experiential learning, apprenticeships, and industry credentials into academic pathways.
- Serve the Whole Learner: Provide wraparound support, including mental health services, emergency aid, childcare, and academic coaching. Recognize that life doesn’t pause for education.
- Champion Intellectual Diversity and Belonging: Ensure campuses remain places of respectful dialogue, where students of all identities and ideologies feel free to express themselves and engage with opposing views.
Higher Education’s Collective Action for Lumina’s 2040 Vision
The 2040 goal is ambitious, but not impossible. Lumina’s track record—driving a 16-point gain in national attainment over 15 years—is proof that coordinated national action can work. The foundation’s decision to now include economic value as a measure of success is not just timely—it’s necessary.
By building the goal from the ground up—listening, collaborating, and integrating feedback from across the spectrum—Lumina has created a national target with credibility and momentum. It’s not merely their vision—it’s a shared roadmap toward a more prosperous, equitable future.
For the U.S. to meet this target, stakeholders at every level must act with urgency and unity. States need to build supportive policy environments. Institutions must double down on value creation and equity. Employers should strengthen partnerships and invest in education. And federal policymakers must craft student-centered funding and accountability systems.
If successful, the 2040 goal will do more than raise attainment. It will rebuild confidence, reinvigorate the social contract between learners and institutions, and ensure that education remains a pathway to prosperity—not a privilege for the few.
